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Inicio arrow Análisis arrow Argentina arrow Argentine Political Outlook (Jul-12-21)

Argentine Political Outlook (Jul-12-21) PDF Imprimir E-Mail
Jul-12-21, by Rosendo Fraga
 
 

1. The commemoration of July 9 once again evidenced the differences within the ruling party. On Thursday, Jul 8, Congressman Máximo Kirchner criticized the reform of the vaccine law that the President made by decree, to facilitate the purchase of US doses and especially those of Pfizer. He said: "I do not want a country that is a toy of circumstances, that has to give in to the whims of the laboratories," in an implicit criticism of the President's DNU. At the same time, on July 9 the group called "K 25 de Mayo", considered ultra-Kirchnerite, issued its third proclamation, in which it calls for greater state intervention in mining and foreign trade to achieve economic independence. He demanded "courage" from the President to break the inertia. It was signed by Fernanda Vallejos, Raúl Zaffaroni, Pablo Moyano, Hugo Yasky, Amado Boudou, Milagro Sala and other leaders and artists. This time, the President replied: "If someone expects me to give in to creditors or a laboratory, they are wrong. I'm not going to do it, I'll go home first", an answer that showed strength and weakness at the same time. The President is also threatened by the definition of the candidacies. A group close to the Vice President urges Santiago Cafiero, the Chief of Cabinet, to head the Buenos Aires slate. The risk for the President is that he cannot control his replacement. As for the act of July 9, the President in his speech - not written - confused Güemes' sister with his wife. The protests that took place in Tucumán due to the President's visit forced the suspension of most of the planned acts and there were violent incidents between police officers and protesters. 

2. The protest in the countryside on July 9 showed that this sector is the axis of the opposition demonstration, but there were also protests from the left the day before. The call from the farming sector, which was organized in two weeks and was disseminated via chat, was in the Buenos Aires town of San Nicolás. The organizers estimate that more than 60,000 people gathered there. The Liaison Commission of the entities of the sector joined. The claims from the farming sector took priority, but references to school attendance and vaccination were also raised. The political leadership was mostly absent. The presence of Patricia Bullrich on horseback was not well received and neither the leaders nor the organizers met with her. But this protest, which had the same aesthetics as the "banderazos" (flag-waving protests), generated other spontaneous ones in various parts of the country (provincial capitals, towns in Buenos Aires province, the Obelisk and the Olivos Residence). The day before, the sectors of the left and ultra-Kirchnerism demonstrated in the City of Buenos Aires. Plaza de Mayo was the stage for a protest demanding the release of Milagro Sala, after 2,000 days of her detention, which is now residential. It was carried out with tents and combative unions participated, such as those grouped in the CTA, organizations such as the Argentine League for Human Rights, the group of Priests in Option for the Poor, and legislators. On the same day, a march of left-wing social movements (PO, MTR, Barrios de Pie, MST, Bloque Piquetero Nacional and FOL, etc.) took place along 9 de Julio avenue, which converged at the gates of the Ministry of Social Development, demanding extension and greater financing of the "Plan to Promote Work". Simultaneously, outsourced workers from the Roca Railroad blocked the tracks near the Constitución Station. Faced with this situation, people who could not travel and fed up with waiting, went themselves to clear the tracks, leading to violent incidents. 

3. In the opposition, the official candidacy of María Eugenia Vidal to head the slate of CABA closed its capital city chapter, but the Buenos Aires province one still remains open. Rodríguez Larreta got the unity photo in his district, including Patricia Bullrich, which he does not seem to achieve in the province of Buenos Aires. He was able to show the agreement reached with the Radical Party, the Civic Coalition and Socialism. He will only compete with López Murphy in the open primaries with his United Republicans party, which if he reaches 15% of the votes (of those who opt for Juntos por el Cambio) will obtain a quarter of the candidacies. On the other hand, in the province of Buenos Aires, the efforts to achieve a single slate have failed. Facundo Manes, as the first candidate on the radical slate, did not agree on a single slate and negotiates additions such as that of Emilio Monzó. For its part, Larreta's slate, headed by Diego Santilli, tries to join the radical party sector led by Gustavo Posse and which has the support of Martín Lousteau. Jorge Macri, for his part, confronted with Larreta, has so far made demands that are difficult to fulfill. José Luis Espert is determined to be the third slate, although without the possibility of reaching the minority. In the interior of the country, the closing of slates poses difficulties in the main districts: Santa Fe, Córdoba, Mendoza, Tucumán and Entre Ríos. 

4. Meanwhile, in the ruling party, uncertainty remains as to who will be the first on the slate, a decision that Cristina Kirchner has reserved for herself. The Vice President would support a moderate figure, who does not drive away sectors of the lower middle class, who today are reluctant to repeat the vote for K Peronism. But this does not prevent the fight for the integration of the rest of the slate. The province of Buenos Aires renews 35 national congress members, and La Cámpora, the mayors of the suburbs, and Sergio Massa's Renovation Front are fighting to place their candidates, without any of them renouncing to present their proposals to the Vice President for the first place. In the City of Buenos Aires, the one who seems to run with the best chances to top the slate is Leandro Santoro, but secondly, the Minister of Sports and Tourism, Matías Lammens, who has a more moderate image, is being considered. In the campaign, the axes of the ruling party are the increase in consumption and a faster vaccination. Although the cases have decreased in recent weeks in the country, the world shows that a growing trend and a third wave coming (and in some cases up to a fifth). But there is also a political axis: making former President Mauricio Macri a center of the electoral debate that complicates and bothers Juntos por el Cambio. The bankruptcy of the Argentine Post of the Macri Group, the request that will be made to the court by the Socma Company, emblematic of the Group, and the complaint about the alleged support for the fall of the government of Evo Morales in Bolivia, go in this direction.

 

5. To conclude: 

a.    On July 9, a new offensive was launched by Kirchnerism on the President, who rejected the criticism but confusedly raised the possibility of his departure. 

b.  The public protests acquired a strong opposition tone, coinciding with the National Day and with the farming sector as the axis, but the day before the left sectors also took to the streets. 

c.   The opposition defined the slates in the Capital city, with Larreta succeeding in aligning all sectors, except for that of López Murphy, in a single slated headed by María Eugenia Vidal. 

d.     In the ruling party, the unknown is who will be the first candidate on the Buenos Aires slate, a decision exclusive to the Vice President, with consumption and vaccination being the axes of the campaign.

 
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